could always do an ebola experiment~
Take some red food coloring mixed in water and leave a few droplets on the counter. then count how many days you can avoid it
Ebola Patient Coming To U.S.
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Ebola Patient Coming to U.S.
40,000 per year, on average.
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Ragnarok.Nausi said: » Caitsith.Shiroi said: » Odds are you will more likely die from flu than from Ebola because the chances you get infected are incredibly low if you are careful. Should we ban all poultry and quarantine anyone who ate poultry because avian flu has a higher death rate than Ebola? I certainly have a higher chance of catching the flu than Ebola, but not catching the it and dying from it. I have no medical conditions that put me in the higher risk groups. If I personally got the flu my chance of dying from it would be microscopic. Far smaller than the .05% general number because of the specific lower risk demographic groups I am a part of. I have a higher risk of catching Ebola and dying from that. Especially when the administration won't enforce quarantines for nurses or doctors who frequently travel to and from infected areas and handle infected patients. If that weren't enough, the administration is also planning on importing people infected with the virus into the states for treatment. Ragnarok.Nausi said: » Caitsith.Shiroi said: » Ragnarok.Nausi said: » Jetackuu said: » quite appropriately now: "no, you" seriously, it's not that hard. You seem to still be confused that a higher death rate always = more dangerous, when it's not the case when applied to the # that can get sick. Apples: oranges, you have to take into account all of the variables, but that would defeat your point and destroy any argument you have for fear mongering (which honestly is debunked on it's own anyway, since you're using bad numbers to begin with.) Which would you rather have Jet? Last years flu or Ebola? That's a simple sentence. I know you can understand it if you try. Flu. What you don't want to understand is flu is affecting millions of people within 1 year, while ebola barely can hit 10k people in a third world country, with barely any sanitary measures, where people were uninformed about it or thought it was a hoax and the only reason it spread that much is because WHO decided not to send any help until it got out of hand. I don't fail to understand how the flu has killed more people than Ebola has, that doesn't make the flu more dangerous. I am in the next year personally more likely to die from Ebola than from the flu, and unless your an infant, or elderly, or have some other specific medical condition which puts you in the .05% of people that get it and die from it each year, so are you. I don't think you understand very basic probability. These numbers are made up, albeit in the right direction (higher probability of death if you catch ebola, but more likely to catch the flu), for my ease of use. If you have a 90% chance to catch the flu, and 1% chance to die from it when you catch it you have .9*.01 = .009 or .9% chance to die from the flu. If you have .01% chance to catch ebola (this is probably the most inflated number) and 90% chance to die from it if you catch it, you have .0001*.9= .00009 or .009% chance to die from ebola. I would be more worried about dying from the flu this year. That said, if someone with ebola decides to take a dump on you, you should probably be more worried about dying from ebola, as your chances of catching it have just skyrocketed. This has been a PSA from your friendly statistician. Have a great day.
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I would be more worried as to why you would let someone take a dump on you
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Desperate times call for desperate poop on your chest.
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Some days I wanna watch the world burn, but i'd settle for it to crash and bleed out instead from ebola
In a country of 320 million people, 36k die on average each year.
0.011% chance of dying from it. If I take your .009% number, we're already pretty close. Couple that with the fact I have no exaggerated risks to die from the flu, my personal demographic risk is probably a not even a I habitually get a flu shot, and what's the chance of me dying from the flu now? C'mon... Ragnarok.Nausi said: » In a country of 320 million people, 36k die on average each year. 0.011% chance of dying from it. that's not how the mortality statistics are calculated for diseases... Caitsith.Shiroi said: » Ragnarok.Nausi said: » In a country of 320 million people, 36k die on average each year. 0.011% chance of dying from it. If I take your .009% number, we're already pretty close. Couple that with the fact I have no exaggerated risks to die from the flu, my personal demographic risk is probably a not even a I habitually get a flu shot, and what's the chance of me dying from the flu now? C'mon... Out of 320 million people, 2 people caught it on US grounds, meaning you have 0.000000625% chances of catching it. Both survived. Both of them had place themselves at risk of catching it by treating someone who already had ebola. C'mon... By that logic, when 0 people had caught in on US grounds, the chance of catching it would be exactly 0%. Seeing as how at least 2 people ended up catching it, your way of calculating the probability is wrong. C'mon...
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Is it wrong that I want everyone Kaci Hickox has come into contact with to die of ebola?
So, just because 2/4 people in the US has caught this virus in the US, we must not start preventing it from spreading, even though this is such a deadly and contagious virus?
Is that what I'm getting from people here? Caitsith.Shiroi said: » Bahamut.Ravael said: » By that logic, when 0 people had caught in on US grounds, the chance of catching it would be exactly 0%. Seeing as how at least 2 people ended up catching it, your way of calculating the probability is wrong. C'mon... I never said chances of catching it would be exactly 0%, there are always variables you can't account for in these kind of situations. It's not impossible you become a new patient 0 of ebola, it's a possibility someone is going to shove megabat poop down your throat. Unlikely but it could happen. I only had a problem with the 0.000000625% chance you gave of catching it, because although it may seem mathematically sound, that's not how such statistics are calculated.
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Caitsith.Shiroi said: » I'm well aware, I just calculated the same way as Nausi does to make a point. Ragnarok.Nausi said: » In a country of 320 million people, 36k die on average each year. 0.011% chance of dying from it. It's like saying 4.2 millions people in Liberia, 10k died from it within 1 year, 0.23% chances of dying from Ebola. Lying with numbers. I was going off the most recent post, but yeah, the Liberia statistic is full of crap too. Probability = (events / # of outcomes) = (infected cases / population)
Total Ebola cases: 13703 World Population: 7.125 billion (as of 2013) Population in Africa: 1.111 billion Population in Liberia: 4.294 million Gbarnga, Liberia: 34,046 Population in United States: 316.1 million Lets just say theres 13703 ebola cases where ever we're at but there can only be 13703 cases at a time...(totally AHing the math here cuz i'm bored and want to make some bs numbers too) Your chances to catch ebola if you live: Earth: 0.0002% Africa: 0.0012% Liberia: 0.3191% Gbargna, Liberia: 40.248% USA: 0.0043% conclusion: If you live pretty much anywhere else besides west Africa. you're safe. Bahamut.Ravael said: » Caitsith.Shiroi said: » Bahamut.Ravael said: » By that logic, when 0 people had caught in on US grounds, the chance of catching it would be exactly 0%. Seeing as how at least 2 people ended up catching it, your way of calculating the probability is wrong. C'mon... I never said chances of catching it would be exactly 0%, there are always variables you can't account for in these kind of situations. It's not impossible you become a new patient 0 of ebola, it's a possibility someone is going to shove megabat poop down your throat. Unlikely but it could happen. I only had a problem with the 0.000000625% chance you gave of catching it, because although it may seem mathematically sound, that's not how such statistics are calculated. Operative word in the first post is "When". Logic and time are critical. Asura.Kingnobody said: » So, just because 2/4 people in the US has caught this virus in the US, we must not start preventing it from spreading, even though this is such a deadly and contagious virus? Is that what I'm getting from people here? You just said Half the people in the US are infected with Ebola. 2 to 4 or 2-4 people is the correct way of expressing the #s. Lakshmi.Zerowone said: » Asura.Kingnobody said: » So, just because 2/4 people in the US has caught this virus in the US, we must not start preventing it from spreading, even though this is such a deadly and contagious virus? Is that what I'm getting from people here? You just said Half the people in the US are infected with Ebola. 2 to 4 or 2-4 people is the correct way of expressing the #s. How about out of all the Ebola Patients in America (4), 50% (2) of those patients were contracted on US soil. that too.
Can we panic yet?
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volkom said: » Probability = (events / # of outcomes) = (infected cases / population) /sigh. If I flip a standard coin 3 times and it comes out heads 3 times, that doesn't give me the right to say that the probability of getting heads on a coin flip is 100%. It's the exact same thing with the ebola statistics. You can only use the probabilities the way people have in this thread if you have absolutely no other information off which to base them, and any statistic derived in such a simple manner is usually so far off from the truth that you might as well be making up a number. I'd bring the Ebola, but AZ is currently Ebola free. Texas on the other hand...
OSNAP YOU JUST GOT JAMMED! Bahamut.Ravael said: » volkom said: » Probability = (events / # of outcomes) = (infected cases / population) /sigh. If I flip a standard coin 3 times and it comes out heads 3 times, that doesn't give me the right to say that the probability of getting heads on a coin flip is 100%. It's the exact same thing with the ebola statistics. You can only use the probabilities the way people have in this thread if you have absolutely no other information off which to base them, and any statistic derived in such a simple manner is usually so far off from the truth that you might as well be making up a number. If You tossed a coin 3 times. Got heads 3 times. take into consideration the # of outcomes such as getting heads tails heads. or tails tails tails. If you just flipped heads 3 times. its only 13% probability. Just taking population totals and # of reported cases you can determine the % of the population that's affected. You can then narrow it even further into finding the % of the population in a town/community that's affected. And even further based on the number of people that one person may have come into contact. That pretty much works for a scenario in which no one leaves their town. If you want to use the scenario in which someone is traveling lets say via plane and the passengers on the plane land at some airport and they too then travel. So lets say 100 people on the plane (including pilots/staff) and 1 person is infected with ebola and has symptoms showing. and lets say this one person is the greeting flight attendant so everyone has to get into her personal bubble. So assuming all 100 people are potentially infected. Say the avg # of people arriving and departing this airport is around 200k. Just being one of those 200k people selected at random of testing of ebola is 0.05% chance. Now those 100 possibly infected people then jump on other planes or leave the airport and travel more. Then you see how many people are at the other airports they arrive to and/or along the route they take to their final destination for the day. So if those 100 people went to 100 different airports. that's 20 million possible people they could've come into contact but however very unlikely that a single person will come into person contact with 200k people in a day. On average 1 person infected with ebola infects 2 people. So if we take that statistic then the flight attendant from the original flight infected 2 people (at the most). Those two people infected 2 others at the 200k airport. Then those two individuals infected 2 more continuing until their final destination. So being the average guy at the airport, the chance of just getting ebola at being at the airport is less than zero. Of course the chances dramatically rise the closer you get to the infected person. Also chances vary depending on personal habits, where you travel, and whom you associate with in a personal contact way (via handshakes,kissing,pooping on someone, etc). so there is no straight up formula for determining your chances at getting ebola, so using the simplest way of probability is a good method of determining what your chance is just by being in the area. Bismarck.Magnuss said: » I'd bring the Ebola, but AZ is currently Ebola free. Texas on the other hand... OSNAP YOU JUST GOT JAMMED! |
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