Enternius, the one place your reasoning really fails is that even after 100 runs of Up In Arms, you actually have a pretty decent chance of NOT seeing a KC drop.
Wiki said:
[[Kraken Club]] {{Drop Rate|6|1009}}
That's 6 KC's out of 1009 runs, or 0.6%, meaning that even after 100 runs you theoretically have a 60% chance of having seen one. However that's not how odds work, because even after your 99th run, you still have a 0.6% chance of getting one the next run, not a 59.4% chance.
So basically, if you're the sort of person that loves wasting your money on the lottery as a means of getting rich, then by all means do Up In Arms, but there are much better methods of making money with MUCH better better odds.