The A.M.A.N. Trove BC

Zero progress made in choosing.... A barrel of laughs, eh? We'll see who the last one laughing is...............

-edit-
bob at work says bst, looks like bst it is..

SO JEALOUS

Not sure what's going on this month! but:

Mars orb, thud, loud thud = Nisroch Jerkin (Horlais Peak)

Mars orb, noise x3, loud thud = Dagon Breastplate + 5M (Horlais Peak)

My brother also got Udug jacket, Mars orb, loud thud (Balga's Dais)

Got 4 Chastisers drops from thuds and loud thuds. Figure worth mentioning if anyone is farming for pulse weapons.
3- Horalis Peak,
1 - Balga's Dais

I actually got a pair of Chastisers this month as well from a loud thud in horalis peak.

Coincidentally I also got a Dagan and Nisroch body both from Horlais Peak.

What's a Dagan?

A typo.

Looks like AMAN trove is broke this month.

after 6 months of trash and thhwacks, pulled regal gaunlets last night.

I don't play RUN or PLD, naturally, but still nice to see something of quality drop for once.

I hate you right now.

/blowsakiss

Yea I got a thud, then a loud thud and ended up with a Tart. Plate last month as well, maybe they adjusted the drops to go with the thuds/loud thuds better since its already a ***chance to not die to a mimic lol

For the people pulling all the nice gear, what is you chest piking strategy? More often than not, I get 6-7 noises and bow out or get a mimic on chest 1-2. What are people doing for their choice of chests that get good loot? I know sh!t should be random, but if someone has pulled 2-3 omen bodies, maybe there is something to their chest picking order.

Nobody is doing anything specific to get good loot besides getting lucky. After many hundreds of runs, I can tell you the following:

-The gold chest itself has a chance of loading HQ gear, though it is incredibly low.
-Noises only add one synthesis material to the pool.
-Thuds only add one low quality gear drop to the pool : the very rare instances of people getting nice gear from thuds are actually from the gold chest.
-Loud thuds add a HQ slot, which can be moonbow mats, NQ 119 cursed items, reisenjima t2-t4 drops, or actual good stuff.

With that in mind, the only ways to increase your chances of rare gear are to get a loud thud or successfully open the gold chest. There would need to be an extremely large community orientated effort to figure out what the ideal strategy is with any degree of certainty, so realistically you just do what makes you feel best. I open until I get a loud thud or a mimic or 9/10 boxes opened.

I agree 100% with the above

Luck is luck. It's like asking someone how they won the lottery. The RNG favored them that particular time.

I personally start at random chest and repeatedly yell "LEFT OR RIGHT?" at my wife until I get a loud thud. I've gotten two Tatertot platemails and a ugood vest using this method. Would recommend 9/10.

Are there any ideas of what is NQ vs HQ items? I havent got any omen bodies, but I did have a single regular thud run that got me both a gyve body and an enforcers harness, which led me to believe bodies could come from thuds (if not any)

I like this method.

How do I get in contact with your wife?

Except there are now people who have won the lottery 5-10 times with pulse items, omen items, etc. As I said, random is random...but when people get multiple good items perhaps something else is going on. And asking for personal strats on avoiding kathwack box is just asking for anecdotes. It doesn't guarantee I will see the same results.

My personal strategy: When I approach the boxes, sometimes they are popping into color/glowing(perhaps lighting setting is just turning on) but it is always in a different order and always sequential (never 2 boxes at once). I try to avoid the last 2 that 'turned on'. It has gotten me 1 omen body, tons of mimics, and some trash items. But because it did get me an omen body, I have been doing the same thing ever since. Assuming I see the lighting of chests as I approach.

I believe all of that is accurate. And a couple other points:

* It doesn't appear there is any difference in which HQ drops come from which burning circle locations. Doesn't hurt to note the zone, but notable drops seem to be coming from all circles randomly.

From my own experience, I always do Balga's Dais and the good loud thud drops I've managed to get include: Nisroch Jerkin, Shamash Robe, Annealed Lance, Kubira Meikogai, and some disappointing stuff (gee, thanks for a Compensator from Loud Thud...)

* You can't open 10 boxes, the 10th will always be mimic. People have tested this when getting 9 opened boxes with no loud thuds, and taken the risk of seeing if it was possible to get a non-mimic on final box. So far, no reports that anyone has succeeded.

Got two loud thuds in a row on my first orb.....got greedy and got a mimic on the third....it's all luck ; ;

Correlation =/= causation. Yes it's important to record data but without far more data than we currently have access to testing this is just not feasible. We've already ruled out that it can't be seen with All Seeing Eye and similar programs so I wouldn't be surprised if it's just a dice roll each time you open a chest.

If roll = 1 or 2 then noise
If roll = 3 then thud
if roll = 4 then loud thud
if roll = 5 or 6 then mimic.

Maybe we'll prove that wrong eventually but for now I really don't think we'll have anything until we have at least a year or 2 of data and more testing that isn't just "Well I do this" without some sort of actual pattern to the things being done.

I think it's more important to know whether it's a dice roll every time you open the chest VS the mimic decided / in a specific chest as soon as the burning circle is entered.

The difference between it being 1/10 then 1/9, and so on all the way down to a 1/2 between two chests – and the chest actually being decided as soon as you enter is actually quite significant.

It doesn't really change the outcome too much, but it would change your strategy for opening chests.

For instance, pretend you're at a carnival. There is a game at this carnival where there are three cups turned upside down. Two of the cups have nothing under them, and the third cup has a black stone. You give the worker $3 to play, and if you pick 2 cups that do not have the black stone under the, you win a massive prize, but if you pick the black stone you win nothing. The worker shows you the stone, and shows you that it is under a cup. You then turn around and he rearranges the cups so you can't know which one holds the black stone.

This is a very simple problem. You know the stone is under one of the cups, and two of the cups do not have a stone, so you approach it in a certain way.

AMAN Trove doesn't seem to be like this, but it could be. It seems more likely it's generated at random as you click on chests. It could be a noise, thud, loud thud, or mimic (the black stone). But.. because the results are being calculated as you open the chest, not before hand.. all chests are simultaneously the mimic and the noise/thud/loud thud at the same time. This changes how you approach it.

If it works the first way, you should separate the chests into two halves. Open a chest from one side first, then – if it's not a mimic, move to the other side. Why do this? Because once you've isolated it down to two sets of 5, and removed a chest from the set of 5, there is a greater probability that you will not open a mimic on the other side that still contains 5 chests.

If it works the other way, you should just walk in and open the first chest you see, then the next, then the next, etc. This is because the mimic could be any chest at any time, and is not in a set location.

I don't think how the mimic is determined has ever been explained. I would imagine it works more like scenario #2, where it's just a random chance for every chest to be the mimic based on how many chests have already been open.

I dont understand the large amount of people not wanting to at least share their anecdotes/attacking my post for asking for anecdotes.

If we don't share data, how will we ever discover if there is a silly mechanic(the chest associated with minutes on entry is always a mimic...etc).

I understand we can't use the hex ids or other addons and wasn't asking for them.

I also never stated correlation was causation. What I said was that some people seem to have had quite a bit of luck, and asked what their strategy was. What if someone's OCD strat is some asinine pattern...that yields repeatable rewards?

It absolutely could be completely random. But sharing data should be encourage so we can figure that out, rather than downplaying it no even bothering.

IE, someone posted their data on opening the gold chest only to show it can yield the special rewards on its own. Sure, a lot of us use random guessing etc, but when multiple people report multiple high end wins...then it is time to see what was going on. Maybe it is chance, maybe they had an army of mules and 2x omen bodies they reported is negated by 45x mimics in first 2 chests that they didn't report. But more data >>'sh!t is random deal'.

The only change it would make is how much of a chance we have to find the mimic. If it's 100% that the mimic is determined as you enter the BCNM, it simply changes the odds and makes the possibility of seeing the mimic appear more as you open chests. This does nothing other than making you decide whether you'll continue to open chests after a certain point based on statistics.

If it's completely random it's essentially the same, the only difference being that your statistics are always the same, which doesn't change how you open either because of the randomness of it, if the roll is 1-6 like I mentioned then it would just mean that you'll always have at least a ~17% (33% if it's really 5-6) chance of getting a mimic until you get down the to last 2 chests in which case you can assume 50% chance since one of them is 100% a mimic.

There wouldn't be a different way to approach it no matter which way it is, it'll just be how much you want to gamble. Now if we find an actual pattern or que that lets us know exactly which is the mimic then that's a completely different situation but as of right now that doesn't seem like the case and I stand by the idea that we'll need far more data before we can get to a point we can make that decision.

The thing with this is there's already people doing this kind of data collection using multiple mules. It's better for them to keep the control of that data so as not to muddy the waters by including information from a source they cannot control.

But I'll put that aside, I came off the wrong way and I apologize.

There is plenty of stuff in this thread of people giving their anecdotes which I think is far more worth reading through rather than asking on the most recent page.

There would absolutely be a difference. I'm not sure if you stopped reading, because I did write a lot.. so i'll sum it up.

If the mimic is in a specified chest every time you enter the BC, then you know 9 chests do not contain the mimic. that's why it changes. That is the only variable you would know.. 9 chests are either noise/thud/loud thud. This absolutely should change how you approach it. You're goal is to maximize the chance you have of opening one of those 9 chests. That's why I said in this scenario it's smart to separate them into two halves. Because then the chance of opening a a chest without a mimic in it changes every time you eliminate a chest from each section. .5/5 and .5/5 changes to .5/5 and .5/5-1 after you open the first chest.

Your goal is obviously to open chests without the mimic, so you should maximize the probability that the chest you're opening does not have a mimic in it.

Now, this starts to break down the more chests are eliminated, obviously. But starting with 10 chests, and knowing that 9 don't have a mimic in them.. this would be a better approach.

But like I said, I doubt that's actually how it works.

If it's a random chance every time you open it, meaning it just has a chance to become the mimic, then just open them at random. They are all the mimic and a noise at the same time.

I know a tactic that lets you identify the mimic 100% of the time, you die in the process tho.