The A.M.A.N. Trove BC

As much as I can understand people wanting Volte to be added to the AMAN trove (and it does make a lot of sense, on one hand) I'll be the egoistical *** and say PLEASE NO.

The more loot they add to those chests, teh less chances I can finally see one of the Omen drops I want, lol

I think that with the amount of bodies dropped from Trove (including Tartarus), they should really use this to update Vagary/Omen in that regard. It's terrible design at this point.

I haven't gotten anything noteworthy from Trove since its release, it's like a monthly Bonanza to me.

So far I hadn't got anything, just mats, cheap ones mostly. And a lot of mimics.
Things changed this month when I got a 50 mils Sash though.

I only have 2 level 99 characters though, statistically things are of course much better for people who have 5+

Anyone else convinced they nerfed the aman bc this update? Just did 8 orbs and popped about 30 noises before eventual mimics. Not even a single thud

Would take far more than that to convince me. Sample size aside doing them enmasse you will see things like that. Part of why I started limiting how many I opened even if I don't get a thud

you probably just getting caught up in the update whiner's miasma of negativity :P

I don't normally post this crap... but I must say, I took a chance and it paid off.
Got Orb - Went in - First chest/Loud thud - Left

31 seconds.

3 so far since update, no thuds or loud thuds and all mimic'd out

2nd chest mimic
4th chest mimic
9th chest mimic

guess that's what I get for not taking non-thud/loud thud runs

I've been getting this since release on 20 characters.

So the truth is that you most likely were very lucky before this month.

Ok so after sitting down and actually parsing my countless hours of streams, I was saddened to realise that Thuds are basically worthless.

I had thought the money drops worth 300Kish came from Thuds, but they actually came from Noise.

So, the final values of Chests works out to, after writing down all the drops and calculating:

Noise Value: 127,229 Gil
Thud Value: 0 Gil
Loud Thud Value: 45,465,000 Gil

Average value: 1.34mil

Based on this and https://www.ffxiah.com/forum/topic/52655/the-aman-trove-bc/47/#3428053 we arrive at the following conclusion:

Even if you go 8/8 on Noise chests, its still worth it to open the 9th.

Thuds are worthless, and you have a 50% chance to gain 1.34mil, and a 50% chance to lose a bit over 1mil, so its still in your favor to open that 9th chest.

Which makes me a bit sad I wasted SO many orbs stopping on Thuds thinking they were what was giving me the money drops, but it was worth it now that I have all that raw data.

So there we go. Just open every chest til you hit Loud Thuds.

I can't stand how unlucky I am with this event. Out of probably about 20-30 orbs or so(only have 2 characters) I have yet to get past opening more than 3 chests before getting a Mimic. Yesterday I had 3 orbs(2 Mars, 1 Venus) and I got a Mimic on the first chest opened in all 3. Never once even seen a loud thud and never once even opened the gold chest to complete the event.

Am I doing something wrong or is this seriously just my life? I'm about to just start opening the gold chest without even opening any other chests and just hope the gil is worth it. Or sell my orb runs if I can.

There are hundreds of thousands of orbs used.

You feel unlucky because a very small portion of those orbs (win or lose) get reported here and you read about it.

For every "omg body" there are a hundred "well that sucks" just keep going.

For some reason everytime I get the more expensive orb I get a mimic on the first chest. EVERY TIME. I started to just get the cheaper ones always. I got mats worth about a million gil once but typically get garbage or mimics.

Can attest. Done 200+ orbs now and only 2 Omen bodies. Overall rate I hit mimics is somewhere between 1/3-1/2 with them often coming in a row.

Hell I didn't even see my first Loud thud (and I had misread the forums in here so didn't realize there was a difference lol) for the first couple of months. Loud thuds are rare enough I'd advise against any real expectation of it. There are plenty of times there aren't any thuds in the set

That needs to change. It's not even a gamble if it's impossible to win. Runs where you get 9 noise'd are ***.

Yeah, that's fair. Cognitive biases and all that. Just frustrating as hell. One of my friend's got an Omen body on his first orb(Mars) and I just wanted to scream.

Not that I think I'm the only one with bad luck, but damn.

someone already showed you can get an omen body without thud... You can get it without opening any of the chests.

your complaint doesn't hold water.

The gold chest can drop anything. But you dont really see anyone lining up to open gold and leave. Very valid complaint.

There's no reason there should be randomized noise/thud amounts.

It's a sub game of gambling… first you gamble on the odds if your potential options are terrible and ultra terrible then you roll the dice again from there

Starting to miss annv keys now

The profitability of AMAN Trove is 99% based off your ability to sell money drops like pulse weapons, omen bodies, etc.

If you can't sell those reliably at good prices because you lack the networking for it, it is in your best interest to sell orbs.

If you sell omen bodies at like 200mil, you will net a loss and slowly your gil will drain.

Open the chests til you hit a loud thud or all 9 have been opened.

Statistically you will on average open 5 boxes per run, which means about a 13% chance at a Loud Thud per run, which is about 1 out of 7~8 runs should hit a Loud Thud. On average.

That also means 2/8 and 1/16 are only 1 deviation away though and will happen very often, and 4/8 and 1/32 will happen rarely but often enough to be annoying.

I could probably modify my algorithm a bit to also include the cost of Mars Orbs per run, and in 10,000 runs see what the absolute worst dry streak it hits is, which then gives you an idea of just how much starting gil you need to compensate for dry streaks and still stay profitable.

Why?

Where/when was the percentage chance of any individual outcome stated?

Data from here:

https://www.ffxiah.com/forum/topic/52655/the-aman-trove-bc/47/#3428053

"New optional thing sucks because I can't get the thing I want fast enough".

Okay.jpeg.

Gambling systems are such an awkward thing in video games.

Humans have a very different perception of what 'random' looks like, and they get very frustrated when a truly random thing is presented to them.

A proper random system is mathematically guaranteed to have dry runs and hot runs, by principle of how it works.

People expect and even distribution of results.

But that is literally as unrandom as you can get.

Gambler's fallacy, etc. People expect if you roll a dice 6 times, to approximately see each face once.

If they roll the dice a bunch of times and 6 comes up three times in a row they lose their mind, but the odds that you get a run of 6 5 times in a row when you roll a dice 100 times is EXTREMELY high.

To make it easy lets say you roll the dice 103 times, which means you have 100 chances at rolling a specific number 4 times in a row.

For a single trial of 4 rolls, you have 1/6^4, or, 1/1296 chance that trial succeeds.

The odds of failing are thus 1295/1296.

The odds of failing 100 times in a row are thus 1295/1296^100, which is 92.6%

Which means if you have a 92.6% chance to fail, you have a 7.4% chance to succeed.

So yeah, its not terribly unlikely.

Well if we assume that there is 1 mimic and that it's determined upon entrance not moving we can figure out how many boxes (which we don't know but isn't too crazy of an assumption).

Based on phrasing Loud thud part sounds like it's derived from the first part but given we have no idea how often a battlefield contains any chests with loud thuds and the fact we know it definitely can load without any (or even regular thuds for that matter) can't see how you'd do that.

Also you're going to have to make some assumptions on how far people go too on this

Based on the numbers I parsed above, you just go til a loud thud or 9/10 open.

Even if you go 8 noises, the value of loud thuds at 400 mil for omen bodies appears high enough to warrant opening the 9th chest, based in our previously discussed formulas last page.

I assume chests are preloaded and there are no 'maximum' on thuds or loud thuds. Like, I assume there is a one in a <very large number> chance to get 9 loud thuds.

I think you have to sell omen bodies for less than 200 mil for there to start existing an optimal stopping point, but above that just 9/10 til you hit loud thud.

I don't disagree with everything you said in your post, but this part is misleading. The probability of rolling a 6 on a die 5 times in a row in 100 rolls looks to be somewhere around 1%.

If you assume the gold box to be identical to the rest, you'd want to open the gold box once you're down to 2 brown boxes (guaranteed box + prior loot beats 50% chance at 2 boxes due to lower variance, before even factoring the prior loot) and potentially even earlier if you value it higher.

And yea, the probability calculations are off on the dice rolls. Don't want to turn it into another huge argument though, most of what he's said this page was accurate and much more informed than the average poster/player.