Random Politics & Religion #35: It's Turtle Time!

Doesn't matter. We aren't using past PREDICTIONS to validate current POLLING, they are not related at all. Well, you might be trying to do that, because you're you, but the rest of us are not. No one is using Rasmussen other than you after all. Which remains hilarious.

To recap again, this is a lie.

Keep trying to rack up those plusses guys. They mean so much.

Only in your social construct thats built on historically inaccurate polling.

Rely on that incorrect data if you must, but you’re making a fool of yourself by refusing to consider what was among he most accurate pollster and polling method in the last election.

No I'm not, as I said, predictions have nothing to do with accurate polling. Rasmussen is hyper partisan, probably the most partisan poll out there left or right. I don't even think it has a comparable partisan partner on the left. Everything Rasmussen reports in its polls has always been and always will be dismissed. You believe them because you are you, nobody else is.

Predictions are irrelevant.

It doesn’t matter if it’s partisan. What matters is if it’s accurate.

Leftist polling wasn’t accurate. Rasmussen was and no amount of your kicking and screaming will make that untrue.

Say WHAT???

You mean this dude?

FBI: Man's Belief in 'Sortition' Led to Suicide Plot
Newser

I mean there aren't even fringe parties with his beliefs.

lol, I'm not kicking and screaming at all about the accuracy of past predictions, that was a nice try to deflect tho. Past predictions remain irrelevant no matter how much YOU kick and scream. Rasmussen is not an accurate nor reliable pollster. And as you said, that's what matters.

I correctly predicted the Cubs would win in 2016, Im right forever!

One of the tactics the Democrats like to do is false positive signaling in order to energize voters. This plays on the human desire to be part of a "winning" team, by amplifying themselves as the "winners" they encourage fence sitters to join them. Used to be an incredibly effective method, but it kinda blew up in their face during 2016. The opposite tactic is fear signaling to energize their base that they "need every vote" to win. 2016 was weird because both parties used opposite tactics with the result of people believing the *** politics and not just looking for themselves.

I can see the Democrats picking up some house seats, those can and do change frequently and are very sensitive to local politics because they aren't statewide. Senate seats on the other hand work different and all indicators are that the Democrats are going to lose a few or it's going to remain neutral. We know the Democrats are going to lose one for sure, Heidi is pretty much done and the other Red state democrats don't look too solid. In contrast the handful of "Blue" state Republicans look pretty safe. The Democrats were hoping to flip a few Republican spots through demographic shifting and those deplorable rural Americans just not wanting to vote anyway. That kinda just changed with the whole Kavanaugh situation when the Democrats obviously weaponized false sexual assault allegations. It's not a good idea that Democrats are saying they will look to remove him if they win a majority in November, there's no bigger way to get a bunch of deplorable's to vote then that.

Guy has problems with Rasumussen because of bias, but fires back with freaking WaPo.

I guess you missed the sarcasm.

It's not always easy to tell....

But anywho, RCP has the Dems' chance of taking the House growing less and less as the days go on as toss-up elections get ruled as leaning GOP. That site basically has the whole thing at a dead heat.

I would like to do my own analysis on each toss-up district to get a better picture, but it's a much bigger pain in the butt to do House predictions than it is to do Senate. I've got my Senate race predictions mostly on lock-down already, but I probably won't bother with the House this year.

I been doing a little reading and most sites have republicans picking up 4 seats in senate and losing 2 in house. That's mainly an average of sites but who do you really believe with so many polls being not even close last election.

Both sides are energized but I think the threats from the left of undoing everything Trump has done are going to end up hurting them in November.

I look at the RCP generic ballot and see the Dems have among the highest numbers they have had all year, and the gap is about the same, 6-8 points. I'm not looking at each race tho.

I'm more focused on the black approval rating conspiracy, I noticed Fox just dropped it entirely from their demographics, I guess its so bad they don't even report it because it would upset Trump.

So, which sites exactly? I find it hard to believe a credible website has only a 2 seat adjustment in the House. I wonder if that has ever happened. (Doubt it)

The faces of the Democrats...scary stuff...you've been warned:

You say a lot of things...just it is that...we don't care what you think.

I don't put much stake in the generic ballot. It seems about as useful to me as predicting the national popular vote, which to me is like predicting the winner of a football game by predicting the number of yards each team will gain. Sure, there's often a correlation, but it can also prove to be meaningless.

The Republicans have the highest numbers they've had all year as well in that same poll average. There is little to be surprised about in the generic ballot vote.

Yea the Republicans are crazy meanwhile:

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We didn't vote in November but trust me...I'm going to vote my *** off this November...that is if I remember to !

Actually I'm in a Blue State filled with *** and soon to be ***. So my vote doesn't matter.

Guy believes foreign interference was negating peoples votes.

Where would he get THAT idea? “Muh Russia” perhaps?

I know the feeling.

Im in NY but do not share elections with NYC for most part. Remember your local races need love too. Congressional, Senate, State seats.

I'll probably vote I'll write down FFXIAH rules the world !