Random Politics & Religion #35: It's Turtle Time!

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フォーラム » Everything Else » Politics and Religion » Random Politics & Religion #35: It's Turtle Time!
Random Politics & Religion #35: It's Turtle Time!
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 Bahamut.Ravael
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By Bahamut.Ravael 2018-11-06 22:09:17  
I'm actually a tad bummed with how predictable this election cycle has been. Not necessarily the predictability of almost every race (which most of them were), but the predictability of the midterm election as a whole based on previous presidencies.

Whether your side won or lost, you have to admit that 2016 was an exciting election year. 2018 is just formulaic.
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By Viciouss 2018-11-06 22:11:15  
Im guessing the exit polls will be what we expect, Republicans won the white male demographic, and absolutely died with women and minorities.
 Bahamut.Ravael
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By Bahamut.Ravael 2018-11-06 22:33:59  
Viciouss said: »
Bahamut.Ravael said: »
Viciouss said: »
Bahamut.Ravael said: »
Viciouss said: »
Pretty much the expected result, Fox is already calling the House. It was an impossible Senate map for the Dems.

Impossible? That's not how the talking heads have been treating it.

All I'm interested in is at this point is whether or not my Senate predictions from a month ago will still hold. So far so good!

Who?

I was literally watching CNN at lunchtime today (not by choice) when they were talking about the Dems having a good shot at flipping the Senate. There was no mention of "impossible".

Probably just partisans you see on those channels, i havent seen any projections that said the Senate wasnt heavily favored for the GOP. If Trump was doing a good job, with this map he could have picked up 7 or 8 seats. It shouldnt be this close.

Uhh, it's CNN. Of course they were partisans.
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 Bahamut.Ravael
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By Bahamut.Ravael 2018-11-06 22:36:02  
Viciouss said: »
Im guessing the exit polls will be what we expect, Republicans won the white male demographic, and absolutely died with women and minorities.

Yeah, that's probably right. I expect to see a strategy shift in the next two years on the Republican side. I wish I could say the same for the Democrat side, but they haven't changed strategy since the 1960s.
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By Valefor.Endoq 2018-11-06 22:36:18  
So do we know who wins the vote yet?
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By clearlyamule 2018-11-06 22:52:47  
Bahamut.Ravael said: »
Viciouss said: »
Im guessing the exit polls will be what we expect, Republicans won the white male demographic, and absolutely died with women and minorities.

Yeah, that's probably right. I expect to see a strategy shift in the next two years on the Republican side. I wish I could say the same for the Democrat side, but they haven't changed strategy since the 1960s.


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By Viciouss 2018-11-06 22:54:29  
Its early but it looks like Jon Tester is going to win in Montana, it was stupid to think that Trump winning the state by 20 points means they can run out a guy from Maryland and win againt an actual mountain man.
 
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 Bahamut.Ravael
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By Bahamut.Ravael 2018-11-06 23:00:28  
Viciouss said: »
Its early but it looks like Jon Tester is going to win in Montana, it was stupid to think that Trump winning the state by 20 points means they can run out a guy from Maryland and win againt an actual mountain man.

Yeah, Montana is on lock. Imo, the only race that is still up in the air is Arizona.
 
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By 2018-11-06 23:13:55
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By clearlyamule 2018-11-06 23:20:32  
eh? Not sure how you get looks like House will keep this trend but the senate will completely buck it and not send any seats to the party that already has majority. Especially since all forecast put Rs likely to gain senate seats today
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By clearlyamule 2018-11-06 23:33:08  
I say probably be 54 in the senate from the way it looks now. Though just 50 is enough with the electric tie breaker
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By Bahamut.Ravael 2018-11-06 23:43:40  
Candlejack said: »
Right now, things stand thuswise:
Senate- Republicans have 51 seats, Dems 41
House- Republicans have 168 seats, Dems 178
We may wake up later on to a situation wherein Reps have a BARE majority in the senate by one seat and Dems have the house. At least, there's the way things are looking to go right now.

I don't know what fantasy world you wake up to each day, but 51 ain't happening.
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By Bahamut.Ravael 2018-11-07 00:06:23  
I find it all sorts of ironic that Keith Ellison won his AH race after all the crap that the Dems put Kavanaugh through.
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By Asura.Saevel 2018-11-07 00:11:02  
Bahamut.Ravael said: »
Whether your side won or lost, you have to admit that 2016 was an exciting election year. 2018 is just formulaic.

2016 included Trump who defeated the Republicans on their home turf and then defeated the Democrats. Trump an orange haired business tycoon turned reality TV star. That same person who threw out the rule book and says whatever they want, much to the horror of the political elite on both sides.
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By Asura.Saevel 2018-11-07 00:12:45  
Bahamut.Ravael said: »
Candlejack said: »
Right now, things stand thuswise:
Senate- Republicans have 51 seats, Dems 41
House- Republicans have 168 seats, Dems 178
We may wake up later on to a situation wherein Reps have a BARE majority in the senate by one seat and Dems have the house. At least, there's the way things are looking to go right now.

I don't know what fantasy world you wake up to each day, but 51 ain't happening.

Yeah looks to be 53 with Nevada not reporting anything at all.
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By Viciouss 2018-11-07 00:15:43  
Bahamut.Ravael said: »
I find it all sorts of ironic that Keith Ellison won his AH race after all the crap that the Dems put Kavanaugh through.

A lot of the legally troubled people won on both sides, Ellison and Menendez for the Dems and then the two indicted GOPers. That said I don't really think people care about state AGs.
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By Bahamut.Ravael 2018-11-07 00:19:29  
Asura.Saevel said: »
Bahamut.Ravael said: »
Candlejack said: »
Right now, things stand thuswise:
Senate- Republicans have 51 seats, Dems 41
House- Republicans have 168 seats, Dems 178
We may wake up later on to a situation wherein Reps have a BARE majority in the senate by one seat and Dems have the house. At least, there's the way things are looking to go right now.

I don't know what fantasy world you wake up to each day, but 51 ain't happening.

Yeah looks to be 53 with Nevada not reporting anything at all.

NYT has 53 at most likely, 54 being next likely. I hope that's right, because the GOP certainly needs a RINO buffer after the last couple of years. Then again, it's not like the House is going to pass anything.
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By Viciouss 2018-11-07 00:23:50  
The Trump legislation agenda is dead. There will be no border wall.
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By Viciouss 2018-11-07 00:26:05  
The only area that Trump might find common ground with the Dems is an infrastructure bill, but I doubt the Republicans would go along with it. They have no way to fund it without significantly raising the deficit, which they already did when they cut taxes and increased military spending.
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By Bahamut.Ravael 2018-11-07 00:27:41  
Viciouss said: »
The Trump legislation agenda is dead. There will be no border wall.

At least not until 2020.
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 Valefor.Endoq
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By Valefor.Endoq 2018-11-07 05:36:26  
So which states still do not regulate/restrict guns?
I really don’t feel like getting killed because illegal gun users can brazenly stand unopposed by a defenseless public.
My state just passed some stupid ***and i was looking to move anyways and illegal gun violence was already bad enough here.
 
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By 2018-11-07 06:29:24
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 Valefor.Endoq
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By Valefor.Endoq 2018-11-07 06:34:59  
the communist won?
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By 2018-11-07 06:45:35
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 Carbuncle.Skulloneix
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By Carbuncle.Skulloneix 2018-11-07 07:23:23  
Valefor.Endoq said: »
So which states still do not regulate/restrict guns?
I really don’t feel like getting killed because illegal gun users can brazenly stand unopposed by a defenseless public.
My state just passed some stupid ***and i was looking to move anyways and illegal gun violence was already bad enough here.
I believe by federal law, all states regulate/restrict by the federal standards, HOWEVER, if you're asking which states have more Gun Rights laws or have less Gun Control laws, I can say VA is pretty friendly. Can take it to PMs if wish.
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 Carbuncle.Skulloneix
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By Carbuncle.Skulloneix 2018-11-07 07:25:43  
fonewear said: »
My state is no better my senator is an *** that doesn't do anything...
Yah and my state has loser Kaine.
 
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 Carbuncle.Skulloneix
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By Carbuncle.Skulloneix 2018-11-07 07:32:08  
Candlejack said: »
Turtleburger'd hate Connecticut. Trust me. According to the NRA, "the most restrictive state to live in".
At least it's a passive "Shall Issue" state for Permits. Maryland needs a "reason" and self defense doesn't count. DC just went Shall Issue after a court thinger, DC could have appealed to the SCOUTUS, but other states like MD and CA asked them not to.
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