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Random Politics & Religion #36
By Nausi 2018-12-12 14:15:14
Rcp says 8.7, lets go with this claim, cnn was way off right?
By Nausi 2018-12-12 14:16:26
Sorry its 8.4, Cnn is more off than i thought
By Viciouss 2018-12-12 14:17:31
Rcp says 8.7, lets go with this claim, cnn was way off right?
I mean if you want to try to say that +11 is "way off" from +8.7, what are we calling Rasmussen, who was +1 for the GOP?
Bahamut.Ravael
サーバ: Bahamut
Game: FFXI
Posts: 13622
By Bahamut.Ravael 2018-12-12 14:27:19
That predicted Bluewave was so blue, it produced a red gain in the Senate. #Polls
Gained seats from traditionally red: Indiana, North Dakota and Missouri.
Wow. Such gains.
Lot of Red seats up for grabs next round. Might want to clutch them pearls and hold onto your biscuits.
Uhhh, it's not a great time for you to be optimistic about the Senate in 2020. Even WaPo is saying the Dems will have a really tough time taking it back. Linky.
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Valefor.Endoq
サーバ: Valefor
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Posts: 6906
By Valefor.Endoq 2018-12-12 15:14:54
wth?
why did my turtle thread get locked?
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By Nausi 2018-12-12 15:17:50
Rcp says 8.7, lets go with this claim, cnn was way off right?
I mean if you want to try to say that +11 is "way off" from +8.7, what are we calling Rasmussen, who was +1 for the GOP?
Nonono, lets go back to how inaccurate all these dem polls were (and continue to be). If they weren’t accurate until the “final” round as YOU yourself stipulate, then I guess they arent accurate at all when they indicate the presidents approval is in the 30s right?
Or is there some *** spin you want to introduce here as an explaination?
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By Nausi 2018-12-12 15:19:29
Lets see what kind of conspiracy theory Vic comes up with and presents...
By Viciouss 2018-12-12 15:23:49
Uh, its not a conspiracy. The election polls were accurate, all of them. Except Rasmussen, who somehow believed the GOP would win the general ballot by a point. Everyone else was within the margin of error, or, did not show Dems winning a clear majority, which they did, decisively. But CNN was correct. 55-42 is a reasonable poll when the result was 53-44.
Also, the approval ratings, except for Rasmussen, which has never been accurate, have fluctuated normally and believably. I think only Quinnipac has had his approval in the low 30s, but not for a while. The most important part is Trump's disapproval has always been over 50.
By Nausi 2018-12-12 15:55:21
Hur dur polls with ridiculous margins or error are “accurate”.
Hello newspeak.
Rassmussen is an accurate polling firm and methodology, has been for decades. But lets get back to all these approval ratings by the same polling outfits that we both agree werent accurate in the slightest a year away from the election. Why are they accurate for his approval but not for the election result! What’s the difference?
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By Viciouss 2018-12-12 16:12:42
Obviously, peoples opinions are different. Trump was very unpopular in 2017, unpopular in 2018, and remains unpopular. The ballot polls were never abnormal, they tightened up as the election got closer, again, normal. The final predictions were accurate. CNN was not way off, this is just nausi desperately tryimg to be right and failing, again, normal. 55-42 is an accurate prediction. It hurts nausis feelings but oh well.
538 was especially accurate, predicting a gain of 39 House seats and 1 GOP senate seat, off by 1 each. Rasmussen has never, ever been accurate or credible, and that will never change. Their methodology is archaic, they dont call cellphones. Its why they are always wrong.
By Viciouss 2018-12-12 16:24:25
Wow, simple wiki page paints a much bleaker picture for Rasmussen than I thought, the company we see today was founded in 2003 (there goes that claim about being decades old) and they use automated questions that only offer certain answers >.>
And of course, least accurate prediction in 2018, GOP +1. I don't even want to know how they got there.
Bahamut.Ravael
サーバ: Bahamut
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Posts: 13622
By Bahamut.Ravael 2018-12-12 16:29:13
The most important part is Trump's disapproval has always been over 50.
You can't talk about polls as if you're some kind of expert while simultaneously making dumb comments like this. It's not "the most important part" just because it fits with your narrative. The "most important part" is what actually happens on election days. Your homeboy Obama got schooled way harder in year 2 than Trump did, but that came as no surprise to someone who actually pays attention to more than just disapproval ratings.
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By Viciouss 2018-12-12 16:41:56
The most important part is Trump's disapproval has always been over 50.
You can't talk about polls as if you're some kind of expert while simultaneously making dumb comments like this. It's not "the most important part" just because it fits with your narrative. The "most important part" is what actually happens on election days. Your homeboy Obama got schooled way harder in year 2 than Trump did, but that came as no surprise to someone who actually pays attention to more than just disapproval ratings.
Did he really tho? The census has been rigged in the GOPs favor, and how many more votes were cast against Trump than Obama? This election had WAY higher turnout than those elections.
Also, I like how you basically ignore all of nausi's inaccuracies to nitpick one comment. Yes, its important to me that Trump is deeply unpopular, but it didn't make the election polls any less accurate. Except Rasmussen, of course.
By Viciouss 2018-12-12 16:45:08
Maybe Nausi is Nostradamus.
Is mexico still paying for that wall?
As it turns out, nausi's favorite hyper partisan poll was the least accurate of all the pollsters when predicting the 2018 election. But hey, conspiracy theorists have to stick together.
Also, still this.
By Zerowone 2018-12-12 16:57:16
You don’t get it Vic they’re just salty whether their political team wins or loses.
By Viciouss 2018-12-12 16:58:46
You don’t get it Vic they’re just salty whether their political team wins or loses.
I don't think Rav is salty, I just don't think he wants to jump on nausi's sinking ship. He is wrong about election fraud, the election polls, and the wall. There is no saving him so why try?
Bahamut.Ravael
サーバ: Bahamut
Game: FFXI
Posts: 13622
By Bahamut.Ravael 2018-12-12 17:40:14
To be fair, there isn't anyone in here who doesn't speak nonsense from time to time. We can argue over where each person falls on the nonsense scale, but that would be even less productive than our normal arguments.
As to why I "nitpicked" Vic's polling comment, I tend to focus more attention on topics where I've actually put in some study time. How often I deviate from that rule depends wholly on my level of boredom. Also, let's face it, we play team politics in here. That was a lesson I learned very early on in P&R. I don't call out Nausi very much just like you don't call each other out very much. And it's not because you don't make stupid comments on a regular basis, because (as I stated previously) we all do.
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Garuda.Chanti
サーバ: Garuda
Game: FFXI
Posts: 11127
By Garuda.Chanti 2018-12-12 18:07:10
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By Zerowone 2018-12-12 20:01:13
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By Viciouss 2018-12-12 20:14:04
He got off pretty light, 3 years at a really easy low security prison, Trump is fuming about it. Flynn is going to get even less time, possibly no time, flipping on Trump seems like a good option.
By fonewear 2018-12-12 20:22:57
Didn't they always print a story that Hillary had a love child with an alien ?
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By Nausi 2018-12-12 20:34:21
Wow, simple wiki page paints a much bleaker picture for Rasmussen than I thought, the company we see today was founded in 2003 (there goes that claim about being decades old) and they use automated questions that only offer certain answers >.>
And of course, least accurate prediction in 2018, GOP +1. I don't even want to know how they got there.
Rassmussen is actually a person (scott rassmussen) who has been active and involved in polling for decades.
And just like that another one of vics “ah-ha” moments turns out to be 100% ***.
How embarrassing.
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By Viciouss 2018-12-12 20:38:31
Simple wiki search...
Who knew a simple wiki could turn into rocket science, seems pretty desperate but really, who cares. Fact remains: Least accurate in 2018. Uncredible polling practices, disregard at all times.
By Nausi 2018-12-12 20:43:19
Scott Rassmussen
Quote: Rasmussen first became known for his public opinion polling work. In the 1990s, he volunteered as a pollster for friends who were attempting to impose congressional term limits.[33] In 1995, he founded a polling company called GrassRoots Research.[30] In 1999, after changing the name to Rasmussen Research, the company was bought by TownPagesNet.com for about $4.5 million in ordinary shares.
Look at that, one click away from Vic’s no doubt “thourough and exhaustive” search efforts.
Again, how embarrassing...
By fonewear 2018-12-12 20:46:02
This thread is worse than the PnR 35 and that thread was terrible. Only two pages in...keep it up !
By Nausi 2018-12-12 20:50:34
How can anyone take vic seriously? He literally comes up one click short of facts that entirely disprove his embarrassing assertions.
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By Viciouss 2018-12-12 20:51:03
I don't care about the person that's not even with the company anymore, lol. Like I keep saying, it was a simple wiki. Its a garbage pollster, uncredible. Whatever it started out as, it isn't that anymore. Its always wrong, its why you and Trump like it so much. Everytime you have ever sourced it, you have been debunked. From his overall approval rating to his black approval rating (which was hilarious btw, straight up lying) to the 2018 election.
This isn't even a challenge anymore nausi. Seems like you have abandoned your debunked conspiracies about voter fraud (not existent) and the accuracy of the liberal polls (all were correct) just to score a point, and you are still getting shut out :)
By Viciouss 2018-12-12 20:51:40
How can anyone take vic seriously? He literally comes up one click short of facts that entirely disprove his embarrassing assertions.
Maybe you don't even know Rasmussen left the company? Wouldn't surprise me.
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