AMAN Trove Pattern Observation

I don't know. Even assuming there is a certain pattern to the chests. And the pattern is some how possible to be recreated at a consistent rate. Your method to detect the pattern is problematic.

I assume your "pattern" is something like:

A. Follow a certain chest opening pattern.
B. If you get 1st chest Noise > Mimic on 1st orb.
C. Then you get 1st chest Thud > Loud Thud on 2nd orb.

The 1st problem you get is how to get to B. It's obvious that doing A is not going to help you get B. Without B then you aren't getting C.

So this makes the whole pattern thing pretty irrelevant because you will have problem getting B in the 1st place so it's better to simply just keeping hoping for a loud thud on the 1st 5 chests.

Everyday here is a repeat of another day. It's all been done. it's all been said.

Let the multiple "We need a level 75 cap server" threads rise from the grave.

But the real question is... Is it worth it?

Nevermind. Found it. Thanks.

Did roughly 500 orbs a few months ago with a friend. For Loud Thuds, we saw 7/85 (8.2%) from Mars and 81/405 (20%) on Venus.
We usually go with the "Give me Loud Thud, or Give me Death" paradigm, but in the nearly 1000 Mars + 1000 Venus orbs we have attempted, the loot tables were otherwise identical; it was just very rare to see big ticket items(Omen bodies, Regal hands, pulse items, and BC-only items) from Thud or Noise.
We usually open on first Loud Thud, but for Thuds, the max I have ever seen is 5.

If they had 88 loud thuds out of 500 490... that tells you how many failures (not loud thuds) by default. (ish)

Did not record for the combined 2k orbs. Roughly 70-80%.

I got three pulse wpns in a row the other day, I think thats the luckiest I've ever been because my lose rate was too high. It must be the moon phase.

There is a current event with five planet stellium so your RNG might be messed up.
https://www.cosmopolitan.com/lifestyle/a35383839/aquarius-stellium-2021-astrology-meaning/

not going to read thru 55 pages to see if it has been sugested befor, multibox botters probably had the idea befor but....

since SE is lazy and tends to go the path of least resistance, time is a common variable used in creating randomness and this game only has like a 2 tic rate:
make 2 or more fresh mules to make it likely they don't have differing luck prevention parameters then run them perfectly synchronous thru a run and see if they get the exact same pattern of noise/thud/loud thud/mimics.

I dont think 2 people can enter an instanced area at same time.

Ive seen a lot of content that always forced a few seconds wait before entering if the another one just entered.

And no, just time being the only variable would be more like lazy programming. RNG equations generally need a seed. Most likely any entrance just generate a new seed, what can be just the previous seed +1, the character ID, some bizzarre equation envolving multiples factors.

All I know is I wish they had never done those stupid Adoulin Ergon Locus coalition tasks where facing the thing from a certain direction at a certain distance made a difference!

Although I DO NOT believe it to be true... that introduces just enough of a tiny little doubt that there a seed of an idea in my subconscious that just MAYBE some nonsense like that has an impact on things like AMAN chests XD

Whenever I do these I /random and pick the chests of the numbers I roll. Example: I random a 407 so I pick chests 4, 10, And 7. Do that until I either get a loud thud or die a cruel death lol

Use RNG against RNG.

Are they on to something or is this the most sophisticated trove voodoo yet?

I agree with the z pattern and that it moves I think the movement is on a timer not just clicks.

cant understand it, whats the summary

AI SUMMARY, BEWARE

This is an AI use I can get behind. The pivot to video did so much damage. I never want to watch ten minutes of video for two paragraphs of information.

Interesting. I just tried it a bit and it seems shockingly kind of legit. 2/5 gold chests.

Two I rushed opening more than two chests in a row (did it move, or did I lose track) and the other one was very difficult to see the visual differences once daytime came around (only attempt at night). The two that worked I opened one or two at a time if I was confident in the glimmer order, and kept running back and forth.

The annoyance being that it takes five or so minutes to do.

Video Overview & Metadata
Title: 【FF11】思わず試したくなる！A.M.A.Nトローブ224回の分析と考察！ミミックを見極めろ！【FFXI復帰】
(FF11 – You'll want to try this! Analysis and Thoughts on 224 A.M.A.N. Trove Runs! Identify the Mimic!)
Channel: またたりゲーム旅行記 (Matatari Game Travelogue) – Hosted by returning Tarutaru duo 桃弥 (Touya) & ゆさ (Yusa)
Published: January 23, 2025 | Duration: 32 minutes 59 seconds
Subject: Final Fantasy XI – End-game treasure hunt A.M.A.N. Trove (アマン・トローブ) chest-opening strategy, specifically attempting to identify and avoid the lethal Mimic (カスワック / Kasuwak wipe).
1. The Core Premise: The "Nekoya / Nekomata Method" (猫また方式)
The video investigates an urban legend/technique popularized on stream by fellow FFXI creators 猫家 (Nekoya), which Touya and Yusa expanded into the "Nekomata Method" (猫また方式):

A. The Visual Trick (Render Distance / Draw-Culling Glitch)
Config Setup: In FFXI's in-game Graphics / Screen menu under "Other 2" (その他2), set Display Distance (表示距離) to 0 (minimum).
The Approach Run: When entering the battlefield (Horlais Peak, Waughroon Shrine, Balga's Dais, etc.), the player runs forward from the entrance toward the ring of chests.
The Chest Flash (光の順番): As the 10 wooden chests enter the camera's draw radius, their 3D models and lighting kick in, causing them to subtly flicker/flash.
The Mimic Rule: According to the theory, the chest that flashes last is the Mimic.
Resetting: If the flicker sequence is too fast or unclear, the player retreats back to the entrance until the chests despawn from render view, then runs forward again to re-watch the flash.
2. The 224-Run Analysis & The "Moving Mimic" Hypothesis
Touya and Yusa noticed that repeatedly running in and out sometimes caused different chests to flash last. Rather than dismissing it as a rendering glitch, they developed a deeper set of empirical hypotheses:

A. Historical 224-Run Statistical Mapping
They logged the location of the Mimic across 224 past A.M.A.N. Trove runs and ran the frequency distribution through ChatGPT to calculate empirical spawn percentages for each of the 10 outer chest positions.
Findings:
The back-left chest had the highest recorded failure rate (appeared 31 times).
Touya noted an intuitive personal aversion to the front-left and front-center chests (often feeling like high-frequency traps).
Opening Priority: Cross-reference the "last flashing chest" with their statistical chart—avoid the high-risk positions and open the statistically "safe" chests first.
B. The "Sound-Based Mimic Migration" Hypothesis (移動説)
Because the "last flashing chest" shifted during runs, they theorized that the Mimic physically moves between chests when certain sound cues are triggered upon opening a wooden chest:
"Large thud" (大きな音): Mimic moves 1 position.
"Very large thud" (とても大きい音): Mimic moves 2 positions.
"Tremendous thud" (とてもとても大きい音): Mimic moves 3 positions (or player immediately cashes out at the central gold chest).
Movement Pattern: They hypothesized the Mimic traverses in a Z-pattern across the 10 chests, completely skipping the central gold chest (which is the fixed exit/loot chest).
C. Duo Setup & Quality-of-Life
Because in-game frame rates and lighting are dim and fast, Yusa recorded Touya's PC screen using a high-FPS smartphone camera to review slow-motion footage in real-time between chest opens.
They recommended dark BFs like Waughroon Shrine (ワルン) or nighttime weather to make model flashes more distinguishable against the floor.
3. Verification Results (39 Formal Live Runs)
During the video's 39 test runs combining the render flash, statistics, and movement hypotheses:

Outcome Count Notes
Gold Chest Clears / Cash-Outs 11 (~28.2%) Included 3 early exits on "Tremendous thud" (totetote) and 1 instant Rainbow Chest on the 1st attempt.
Kasuwak Wipes / Failures 28 (~71.8%) 7 wiped on the 8th/final chest; 3 wiped on the very 1st chest; 1 out-of-game crash/disconnect.
The 39th Run Blooper: On the final Venus Orb run, an unexpected Windows desktop advertisement pop-up appeared over the game; attempting to click it away caused FFXI to crash/disconnect, immediately ejecting Touya from the battlefield empty-handed.
4. Technical & Reverse-Engineering Reality Check (FFXI Engine & Protocol)
From an FFXI engine and network architecture perspective, here is what is actually happening under the hood:



[FFXI Map Server] [FFXI Client (Direct3D 8)]
│ │
├── (0x0E Spawn Packets: 10 Chests + Gold Chest) ────>│
│ * All chests have identical NPC structure │
│ * Mimic ID / Kasuwak trigger is SERVER-SIDE ONLY │
│ │
│ [Display Distance = 0]
│ * Camera frustum distance sort
│ * Entity draw-call / vertex lighting jitter
│ * "Last flash" = D3D8 culling order artifact
Server-Side Mimic Logic:
A.M.A.N. Trove chest results are strictly server-side authority. The client receives standard NPC spawn packets (0x0E) containing generic entity IDs and model pointers.
The server does not leak which chest holds the Mimic or loot tier in entity spawn data prior to opening (0x01A action / 0x037 interaction packet).
Why Chests "Flash" at Distance 0:
Under Direct3D 8 fixed-function rendering with Display Distance = 0, entities cross the near/far clipping plane and trigger alpha-blending and Gouraud vertex-lighting updates.
The order in which chests render is governed by camera frustum distance sorting and internal entity array indices. Small sub-pixel differences in player position, camera pitch, and floating-point rounding cause different chests to enter the render bucket on different frames.
This explains why running back and forth produced different "last flashing" chests—it is floating-point draw-call sorting jitter, not an in-game monster moving between chests.
Why Their Success Rate Felt Decent (~28%):
In a Mars Orb run, opening all 9–10 chests without hitting a Mimic has an astronomical failure rate (
≈
10
%
≈10% true clear rate).
Their ~28% success was largely achieved because they hedged risk: whenever a "Tremendous thud" (totetote) sounded or a lucky rainbow chest appeared early, they followed the golden rule and immediately took the gold chest rather than pushing to the 8th–9th chest.
Summary Verdict
Entertainment & Flavor: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ (A fun, tense, and creative community investigation featuring great banter between Touya and Yusa).
Viability: Superstitious / Placebo. While the render flash is a real Direct3D8 client artifact, it is not tied to the server's randomized Mimic designation.
Key Advice from the Video: If you try it, don't marathon runs—staring at sub-frame screen flashes with minimum draw distance causes severe eye fatigue and tension!

Ai in depth summary

Would love to see someone on our side try this.

Not it.

I'm more interested in what the Incredibly Loud Thud rate is, which would give an expected rate for the null hypothesis of randomness.

I would love to see a way to record/interpret

1 2 3 4 5
11
6 7 8 9 10

as raw data

I'm no stats guy but I think it would be interesting to see what has the highest rate of being mimic, thuds etc

If a good collection method is created and standardized a good stats guy or ai, your choice, can produce some interesting results with the community

Wow. Someone revived my old thread. I have since come to the conclusion that it really isn't worth thinking about too much. Like any gambling machine, you can start seeing "phantoms" after a while.

Top Strat:

1. Get your vouchers.

2. Wait for a campaign if you're after special equipment. (Optional)

3. Smash them all out at once. Expect to get the Mimic all the time and spend as little time as possible doing it. The real killer of AMAN Trove is hope. Stop doing that. There is no hope.

4. Preferably open gold after an Impossible to Gauge Thud, after opening all but one chest, or if the Rainbow chest is up immediately when you enter.

New and returning players may want to limit themselves to 4-5 chests per orb so you get something... anything. It is nice to be rewarded. It sucks to get silver vouchers only to receive nothing but constant Mimics. Only go all out for the Impossible to Gauge when you're chasing those rare pieces of equipment. Or don't. It's your game.

5. Get the Rainbow chest item for your Mog House and lose all of your ground-floor furniture for the Mog Amplification bonus. It's a minuscule increase to your chance of getting an orb back when trading to the NPC, but it's better than nothing.

6. Accept that sometimes you'll have spells of good or bad luck. I've had times where Loud Thuds happened repeatedly, and other times where I got a Mimic over and over in the first three chests of every orb.

There are times where you will have high cases of disbelief. How could I be this lucky? How can I be this unlucky? There's no reasoning behind it. Sometimes luck is in your favour, and sometimes it isn't.

Ultimately, don't do what these guys are doing in the video. It's so much wasted time that could be better spent actually playing the game.

People will find patterns in anything, especially when they are convinced there has to be one.

Excuse me, but if I dont align my character precisely south sw on lightsday during a new moon, cast sneak three times to mask my greed, and have my mule film my monitor in 240 FPS slowmo while I hyperventilate, and practice developing my spidy/danger sense did I even really play trove?

This is the game for me now