RMT, Metaverses, Crypto, Blockchain And Now NFT

Ummm... which money supply? THere are 5, M1 through M5. It kinda goes by liquidity.

M1 is stuff you, or a corporation, could spend RFN. so like the cash in your jeans or purse, the credit limit on all your cards.

By the time you get to M3 you won't find two economists in 20 who will agree about exactly what is and isn't in M3.

In my youth I was a math whiz and could easily contemplate, and understand, the three different kinds of infinities.

I still cannot comprehend M5.

Monetary theory, like christian theology, attracts me like a bright shiny object.

Paged!!!



That's a holy fracking **** graph.

It's always a good time to invest, lol. "Good at investment" people will win the game regardless of year.


What? Putin started a war recently and the investment market move up and down like mad for a month after that.

Of course powerful people can affect economy.

There IS a bottom limit to the value of paper currency.

In post WWI Germany it was cheaper to burn one mark notes than to buy coal with them. (From personal experience, anthracite has a great BTU / lb ratio, I mean burning POUNDS! or, if you prefer, KILOGRAMS! of banknotes.)

Liquid cash and cash like assets, so M1 maybe M2 but nothing higher since I was talking about how money usually gets created in the first place, and why inflation ends up being tied to GDP in a healthy economy. In unhealthy economies where Governments dump tons of future money that had no economic activity tied to it, well your graph speaks volumes. All cash and cash like assets get devalued, which hits the bottom 80~90% the hardest as that's all they have.

There is another interesting thing that personally happened to me recently.

While looking for a more risky investment alternative, a friend called me and told me he had a bot (yeah, thats correct) that was programmed to do a certain kinda of operation. I think it had an algorithm to decide when to buy and sell stocks.

And aparently, he has managed to make a good profit in a time when stock market is generally bad, due to still some pandemic effect, Putin and elections in my country.

But the interesting part is how he, who is just a minor player who made his bot out of a hobby, managed to get there. How many profissional bots are already placed in the stock market?

Just think if millions and millions of bots are out there, making business decisions that otherwise would be strategically man made, this would turn the stock market (and any other market you can insert a bot) in a completely controlled world.

I mean, if you know the pattern something will react to a stimulus, strong players can use that stimulus to their favor, completely screwing any minor player, who does it manually.

lmao crypto get ***

This already exists and it's just about the only way to reliably exploit a market. Large investment firms rely heavily on quants to model specific behaviors and then use algorithmic/machine learning techniques to buy and sell.

The secret is that the way to "game" the system is to make millions of very small transactions that cumulate into large gains--- this is the most reliable way to minimize risk. No single investment has high-risk, so the losses from "poor decisions" get amortized across a wide scale of a million tiny gains.

This is why day-trading is just not feasible. To your point: if we make investment decisions manually, we are constrained by our human bandwidth. We physically cannot track a million financial decisions at a time, so we invest higher volumes of money into a smaller number of options. This method produces a wide variance of outcomes and is thus more stochastic: each "failure" you experience hurts you a lot because your portfolio is, necessarily, less diverse. One failure in a portfolio of 10 investments is way more painful than one failure in a portfolio of 1000000 investments.

Real "good at investment" people don't need a bot to make a profit in a bad year. In fact all of the part time/not so pro investor that I know of irl, including myself, has been making a profit this year so far, despite the market is bad. I'd say it's not something impossible to accomplish. It only seems hard because of the endless "I lose all my money in stock/crypto" horror stories posting on the internet recently. But only the story that lose money will be shared this year, not the other way around.

Can a bot collect and analysis data from the past and make above average decision than most people? I'm no tech person but I'd say in theory it's possible. But bots are still going to be behind the curve compare with real players of this field, because bot relies on data from the past, not connections/resources of an individual.

I don't think crypto industry will die completely unless it's replaced by another technology that does the same thing. there are entire way too many people that needs to move their dirty money around with it so the demand is there. Market size decrease? Maybe. Die completely? It will need something that can replace it's core function to happen.

I don't believe in "government regulation" killing it either, when corrupted government officials in 2nd or 3rd world country are the one needing money laundering the most, lol.

Don't really need 4 major coins and 2000 shitcoins to buy heroin on the dark net, monero will do just fine. If you're talking government level laundering, the major coins are easy to trace anyway with that kind of resources. I suppose 'losing all value' was a bit abstract, they still need a finite value to be used in those kinds of transactions. However, they certainly don't need anywhere near the market cap they currently have.

Right now, BTC is 565b. Ethereum is 245b. Tether is 75b. USDC is 51b. You have over a trillion in market cap from just the top 10, there's no real money backing that, it's just speculative investment. BTC was used for darknet transactions in an era where it's market cap was under 2 billion, and a single crypto with a cap of 50b or less could easily take over that transaction.

Eventually, if they are no longer considered as speculative investment tools, there's going to be a point where the practical uses don't demand such a price premium.

Definitely agree. I personally view it as a money transaction tool or something similar, but not "investment" tool as well, at least not on the long term basis. But hey, maybe time will prove me wrong!

https://gizmodo.com/opensea-nft-insider-trading-crypto-1849003955

Of course the fraud is all over anything new and profitable.

Any thoughts on this? Seems as though that was a major hurdle for NFTs as far as game assets being compatible and useful in other games.

https://news.bitcoin.com/gaimin-launches-the-worlds-first-interoperable-cross-game-utility-nft-gaimins-nftxg/