I'm popping 1054 Old cases
HQ drop rate is somewhere between 4.3-4.6%.
I did 1054 x .0456 (randomly picked this, but its close)
Came to 48.06, so 48 was my first pick
If you did 1054 x .0439 (
low end of drop rate estimate actually near the middle, not quite the low end) you get 46.27, so the most likely amount of HQs he got was somewhere between 44 and 48. When he said someone was "very close", there was only one guess in the 40s (42)and one guess at 51 , so it could have either been near 51 or near 42. That should have been everyone's clue to guess from between there. I asked how many times I could guess because it was only about 3 more guesses until I could get it right xD