I'm with you on most of this, I am. However, in this case you lose me on this part:

Using the above set with atheling, WS abse damage is:

Lancer: 315

Ogiers: 305

Lancers raises base damage by 3.28% which translates directly to 3.28% WS damage. Ogiers directly increases WS damage by 3%.

3.28 > 3.0 Lancers wins

So, the above illustrates 315 vs 305 - 315 obviously having Lancer's +2 in the equation.

The 305 however, only represents a Dragoon without pants.

If I am correct, you forgot to factor in that 3% WS increase.

Which if by simple math would prove - 305*3% = 9.15% = 314.15

So, that makes the gap a lot smaller.

Now, Lancers will infact always provide a static number, it's not a %. As the increase in strength occures it will always remain 3.28%

If you're at a point where the extra STR is not being turned into fSTR and it's simply sitting as extra ATK aside of WSC, then you lose a whole 2 damage. Which further brings that gap down.

The 3% will always increase the number. Should you at a certain point hit let's say:

320*3% = 9.6 = 329.60

325*3% = 9.75 = 334.75

330*3% = 9.9 = 339.90

350*3 = 10.5 = 360.50

So what I am showing here, while it still in fact is still 3% increase, it's a constant number that grows as far as how much it provides.

Should we get into 400

400*3 = 12 = 412

Now, if these numbers are in fact valid, after having applied that 3%, then that implies that Lancer's +2 would lose at a certain point. This could infact be an easy win for our Elvaan DRG.

Or simply a win for higher base damage lances. IE: Gungnir.

The 305 vs 315 was just to show how much lancers increases damage (ie 10) which is 3.28% in this case. Ogiers has no str and thus uses the 305 number, so its 3.28 in the whole, but only makes up 3% of it (which is what you showed). The 314 'narrowing the margin' is just showing the remaining ~0.3% that its behind lancers. Its all the same thing.

Yes, there is a point that ogiers beats lancers in raw damage. That point is having a total WS base damage (no pants) of 334. Lancers will provide more raw damage from the str alone at any point through 333. At 334+ Ogiers takes the lead. For a few examples:

Vs 100 vit mob:

99 gug (D159) needs 182 total str before leg slot for ogiers to win.

99 OAT (D110) needs 226 total str before leg slot for ogiers to win.

This is for it to simply scrape over the edge by any % at all as 333.3 is where they tie exactly. You would need another few points or so to overcome the 4-5 atk on lancers on top of that.

Obviously lower vit reduces the needed str slightly, but at a 4 points of vit for 1 point of damage, it wont swing it very much unless your fighting a lv 50 mob, but who cares then.

If your an elvaan Drg/War(higher str than /sam) you get 99 base. 111 with merits. So ideal scenario as an elv with 99 gugnir you need +71 str. Considering we just pointed out in earlier posts what the 'ideal' gear is, it has +74 str in it.

Drg/War Elv with perfect gear= +3str over. Ogier wins.

Drg/Sam Elv with perfect gear= +0Str over(exact). Ogiers scrapes a 1 point lead.

Drg/War Gal with perfect gear= -1 str under. Ogiers looses

Drg/XXX NotElv With perfect gear= never beats ogiers without an outside str buff.

So yes, if you have a gugnir and are an elvaan and you have the best drakes raw power build (aces mail, 2x pyrosoul, etc) then you can virtually tie ogiers/lancers as /sam and squeak out ogiers for /war.

Note on Fstr: 99 Gugnir caps Fstr at +25. The str needed to beat ogiers vs a 100 vit mob places you at +21 Fstr so Fstr capping is never a factor involved in lancers vs ogiers. The str needed to beat ogiers is before you cap Fstr on Gug/Rhongo 99.

For lower damgae lances, it is vitually impossible to reach 334 base damage. That would require (vs vit 100 mob) an additional 44str. Drg/War Elv needs to dig up 41 str from somewhere. Boost str isnt doing that. Abyssea is the only place you can get that much str period.

Some medium damage lance between 110 and 99Gug/Rhongo D159 might get away with a boost str WITH perfect gear depending on the base D of the lance, but that is still only to TIE, not win, and not win handily.

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TLDR:

Ogiers only ever can beat lancers (in raw damage, not acc) if you either:

*Elv Drg/War with 99 Gugnir/Rhongo with perfect gear.

*Elv Drg/Sam with 99 Gugnir/Rhongo with perfect gear and outside str buff(Virtual tie otherwise)

*Using OAT D110 lance with 226 total str (abyssea using a junkload of str gear/atmas/cruor buffs)

You can squish 2-3 points in either direction depending on mob vit, but that doesnt swing it very much. If you dont have a 99 gug/rhongo a difference in mob vit wont change anything nearly enough to swing the results. Maybe low vit mob with Ryu 99 (also because Ryu star builds have more str gear anyway) so MAYBE possible to get there with RYU.

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TLDR 2.0:

*If you dont have 99 Gug/Rhongo/Ryu and acc is capped, dont use Ogiers. If you do, start mathing because its going to be VERY VERY close and gear/mob specific.

*Ogiers can win in abyssea.

*If you have a VERY VERY high damage lance(not relic/mythic/empy), perfect gear AND boost str, Ogiers MIGHT tie if your lucky. Case by case Check. If no boost Str and no Gug/Rhong/Ryu forget about it.

Ogiers is good, but the 3% damage doesnt beat str options except for elves with 99 gug/rhongo and MAYBE Ryu. For the rest of the world its an acc oriented piece, not a power piece. If acc uncapped, by all means. But if acc is capped, it wont win.