The A.M.A.N. Trove BC

You get omen bodies by using hundreds of orbs. Multiple accounts or buying. You (likely) won't get one with your 3 orbs a month from a single account.

Throw orbs at it until rng swings your way.

Average value of a noise is indeed about 50k, because rarely, very rarely, it can put out items worth several hundred k.

Thuds can drop items worth ~100 mil.

Loud thyds can drop items worth in the hundreds of millions deoending, as I said, on your networking capabilities.

If you dont have a network of buyers after your loot on hand, then its not profitable at all to do AMAN trove and your better off selling orbs to the peolle with those networks.

I don't sell orbs cos i want my stupid Regal Gauntlets and Ashera harness... 2 years and i've not seen one drop from aman or omen.

i'd put money on the chances of thuds and loud thuds to be over 2mil as 1/50, maybe less.

I've used way too many orbs even buying some and gotten jack ***.

Its about 1/16 or so.

I find about 1/4 of my runs produce a loud thud.

And 1/4 of my loud thuds are 'money' drops. Pulse weapons or higher.

On a night of 100ish runs I will see about 6 'money' drops or so.

How are 1/4th money drops???????????

Do i literally have bad luck or something?

I am lucky if i get 1 loud thud every 10+ orbs, if i don't die on the first 1-2 chests...

When i do get a loud thud it's a *** piece of Merlinic Gear no one cares about.

Streamer RNG of course. Desire Sensor is killing you too.

Also wear the moogle suit, flex on the chests, but under no circumstances are you to EVER try whispering sweet nothings into their ears (Don't ask me where the chests ears are, if you don't know, you don't deserve your drops anyways)

I repeat.

Whispering sweet nothings into the chests in an attempt to seduce Mimic-chan only ends in {{Death}}.

Consider yourself warned.

I got no room for more lockstyle stuff.... I have like 30+ equipsets just for lockstyles and i play like 10 jobs... my wardrobes can only handle so much.

Lockstyle is the real end-game.

Just saying going from of to 12-13/88 to 15-16/20 is pretty extreme to not consider a pattern and is far from looking for one

And the whole last one being a mimic doesn't really mean anything in this conversation. Also wasn't aware anyone else was doing much in the way of venus for any kind of sample size

Hes not worth entertaining, its all unsubstantiated numbers and hes only here to promote his stream.

My luck is absolutely terrible, I just did 36 Mars orbs and 1 Venus.... 25/37 Fails and in them 25 fails 9 of them were 1st chest mimics.

Had a loud thud on 5/12 occasions where I actually opened the chest and exited, nothing but complete ***, Had a loud thud and 2 thuds with 4 noise which netted me a wonderful Reienkyo and some HTBF crap.

Safe to say the chest hates me, Think I'm in Shiraj's boat destined to never get Ashera lol

Buy the Ashera with real gil. This is the only guaranteed method for getting what you want from it. You can make 200M in a month or two if you sell everything and farm every single day, cap out Ambu points, grind Gain-EXP/Delve/Swart farm, and sell off some high priced items. This is just reality. Mercing is so much more beneficial nowadays because you take the stress, time, and gamble factor out of it and just get your reward once and be done with it. If you want to test your luck at it, you have to go in emotionless and with extremely low expectations.

>Unsubstantiated numbers

>Stream

You understand what the word unsubstantiated means right?

How much more 'substantiated' do you need numbers to be than literal live recordings of every single chest being opened, and live tabulations of profits?


I wish I could formulate a response to this statement but its literally illegible. What are you even saying here?

Finish 3rd grade and I'll tell you again

Great, now go through the recordings and record the data and I'll take you seriously. Video isn't a format that can be easily parsed or analyzed, it's incredibly time consuming.

Nobody is doubting you did the runs and made some guess about your rates, we're doubting the accuracy of your guess. Hint: Humans are not good at estimation, especially retroactively.

Saying I estimated means you didn't actually go look at the data.

I keep a live tally on the video. You can scroll to any point in the video and literally see how much gil I made, how many loud thuds I got, etc.

This is like when someone posts a link to an article and everyone writes abrasive comments clearly indicating they didn't actually take the 30 seconds to even skim the article.

I kept live tallies, its not 'guessing', lol. Anyone who has watched me while I stream can also vouch for the fact its not 'estimations', theres giant white *** tallies on the top right corner I live update every run with my results.

But go ahead and just keep making stabs at my efforts without even looking at the source.

I stand by my numbers.

Also go back and read my post because you pretty clearly missed where I said:


And uh, acting like giant *** towards me is not doing you any favors in convincing me to help you out here. Why exactly am I incentivized to provide my numbers to people being giant *** towards my work I put in?

Like if instead of:


You people said stuff like

"Wow thanks for recording dozens and dozens of hours of chest opening, yes we would really appreciate if you parsed that into numbers, the community always welcomes more data!"

I'd probably do it tonight.

But instead you were huge *** about it for really no respectable reason other than "*** this guy and his hard work"

So... no? Go *** yourselves? Its all uploaded onto my stream so go do it yourselves if you are gonna be *** about it. You're not entitled to my efforts. I contribute tonnes of ***to this community, and anyone who has been a part of it for long enough should know that.

Biting the hand that feeds, etc etc.

Nobody asked or begged for your data. You came in here trying to say things were fact with no actual data to back it up and expected people to take it at face value.

You've got the situation entirely flipped. You're also stupid enough to believe your few hundred kills(by your estimate, so realistically it could be much less) is a significant amount of data for something like this.

Done it more than twice as much as you, and not in agreement. Those are completely arbitrary numbers you picked, and if you had even the most basic understanding of statistics you'd know why saying a strategy that specific is best is laughable.

fyi:'I'm right because these other people agree I'm right' ... is not an amazing defense even if you had named the people.

Soralin: Any hard data other than mine is looking for patterns

Also Soralin: My patterns coming from estimations over the course of hours of distracted playing while streaming are totally the gospel truth. Also because "people" agree with me

Also also Soralin: I'm still 100% sure of my estimations but now I'm not going to compile any actual hard data that I totally would've if you begged for it because people said mean things after I acted like a petulant child when they questioned it. Totally not because it would more thoroughly show I never actually looked at any hard data to begin with because it was never even compiled

Deleted all his streams besides a 10 run one too, because he didn't want to get caught in his own lies. Heh.

yikes

But it's so fun to do!

Now your just straight up lying. Gross.

I didnt delete ***. Twitch just only retains videos for a month.

I have hard copies of all my streams backed up on my server I can use, but claiming ***like this...

1. Shows you have no idea how ut works

2. Displays you didnt bother reviewing stuff

3. Is just being an ***

4. Is completely unnecessary. I have absolutely no reason to lie about this ***.

Yall are toxic as ***. I have 0 reason to lie about ***. Absolutely disgusting behavior.

So Im presuming you have a formula you are going to provide in your next post detailing what the actually correct numbers are then, right?

You only get to accuse people of having bad numbers if you can prove they are bad.

If you were smart, your hackles would raise at this point as you ask yourself 'wait where did Soralin get those numbers from? Did I bother asking?'

Attacking the validity of my numbers when you dont know how I came up with them is pretty ballsy lol

Sure hope YOUR source of numbers is rock solid or you just outed yourself.

No, I have enough understanding to realize that you'd need literally tens of thousands of runs to calculate the average outcome from 7 chests vs 6 chests, 2 thuds vs 3 thuds, etc. Obviously you'd open on a loud thud, nobody is questioning that. When you add oddly specific numbers that you clearly don't have the data to substantiate, it's not very hard to know they're ***.

That's not how it works. The burden of proof is on the person claiming something.

I asked that last page, by asking whether you knew the average value of each object. You responded with 50k,300k,20m and no substantiation for it. People quickly pointed out that those are not accurate values.

Never mind that the mathematically ideal strategy wouldn't just be '3 thuds', it would vary with number of remaining chests as the penalty for opening further ones also varies. You didn't mention that at all, so clearly you don't understand how to calculate probability anyway.

I didn't claim any numbers, in fact I said that despite my larger sample size I know enough to know it's not enough. Just stop, you're trying way too hard and it's obvious you can't even do high school level math.

Are you guys seriously arguing about the estimated possibility of 'heavy thuds'?

It's so RNG that unless we all pool together our #s, it would be hard to figure out the rate - and even then it would be an incomplete data set.

There is no 'possibility' of a Heavy Thud as a standalone value.

The odds of getting a Heavy Thud is Covarient to your strategy.

The argument is what is the most fit strategy to maximize gains over a period of trials.

Unfortunately while I have mountains of recorded data on my stream that, conveniently, people waited long enough for it to start automatically dropping off my stream on Twitch before they started talking *** (I first posted weeks and weeks ago, so why is it NOW that my videos started fading off my stream people started talking ***? lol)

So now basically Im being told I apparently have to re-upload hundreds of hours of opening boxes and go do all the heavy lifting for them to have any credibility, but also was ***talked the whole time and have had constant ad hominem attacks on my character simultaneously.

Like, "Hey your a *** and we don't like, but pretty please upload your numbers and hard work for us to profit off of"

If you had asked nicely at first I probably would have, or better yet if you just went and looked 2 weeks ago when they were public domain, no one was stopping you.

Super convenient you waited til 2 days after the last video dropped off to start suddenly calling me out, like that ***was up for weeks and weeks.

You've given me 0 reason to help you help yourself.

And insulting my knowledge of statistics and predictive analysis isn't helping your case.

Let me summarize:

"Wow your numbers are very different from what I expected, how did you come to that conclusion? Care to share?"

vs

"You're making ***up and just trying to promote your stream. You don't understand math. You are dumb dumb"

Guess which one of those two responses is gonna get you anywhere, and which one just makes me label you as toxic and not actually feel any need to help out?

Nobody asked for your help, I just said you're full of ***. I don't know where you get this illusion that recording a couple hundred kills will have any impact on anything. Never mind that it isn't what you actually did. Hang on, I got some numbers for you.

You sure you can't do it from a small set completely eyeballing it?


Also that reminds me this idea of you should go for multiple thuds loud or not or opening until there is only a mimic left is kind of crazy when you can literally have none in any of the chests

So literally trolling. K.

I swear drama can spontaneously combust at any moment on these forums. Its like watching a pack of hungry wolves waiting for one of their own to trip so they can ravage away at them.