The A.M.A.N. Trove BC

Fausser, Stinger, and ShuanWhatever were your thud items. Shamash Robe came from gold chest. Grats!

was doing a mars orb on a mule, hit one box then accidentally hit the gold box

So I go and do a couple orbs in case I get anything for a friend of mine in case I get duplicate stuff, get ***twice.
Suddenly, said friend uses his second orb ever.



I think I checked like 5 times to make sure I wasn't mistaking.

Posting another case of direct omen body drop from gold box itself. No thuds.

Venus Orb

Started buying orbs again after vowing never to do so again after I burned thru 80M when trove first came out and got a majority of mimics lol.

Spent 24M on Zyana and got myself a Tartarus Platemail from one of their Venus Orbs, Loud Thud.

Spent another 22M so far and well, Mimic'd. #NeedDatNisroch!

Is it just me or did they up the chance for mimic? Did 4 mars orbs last night and all the first random chests chosen were mimics. I wasn’t very happy.

Yes it is.

I think the previously mentioned idea about continuing until you get a loud thud might not be the best. I'm seeing plenty where the exit box was loud thud. I probably would have had a few other loud thuds if I went that strat before

Yes but how many people have attested in this thread to the exit box being a loud thud versus the number of people running the event on a daily basis? There are probably about ten or so screenshots in this thread over the course of many months. That's not a very large sample size to go on. Sure it can happen, but it's pretty agreed on that the chances are low. It's also agreed on that anything other than a loud thud isn't going to give very good returns on the investment. I don't think the previous standard is wrong.

i also got mimic on first chest for 3 orbs in a row. wouldn't be surprised if they upped the chance of mimics for the campaign.

then again i think i also had 2-3 mimics on first chest in a row when campaign was down.

https://www.bg-wiki.com/bg/Drop_Rate_%28Meme%29

Currently I am operating under the assumption that the Mars orb gold chest has the same odds if a loud thud as a successfully opened normal non mimic chest.

Assuming its odds are the same, optimal strategy is to stop opening chests at the 8th.

Whether they did or didn't adjust any rates, your samples of 5 kills will never amount to any sort of proof. I wouldn't be surprised if some rates were changed month to month though, SP keys certainly seem to be.

I haven't done many, probably 20 orbs in total in my FFXI existence. I think 13-14 have been 1st time mimics for me. Only once did I run the table with only loud noises and hit the golden chest to 500k in mats. Never seen a very loud thud or thud.

Its always great seeing first hand just how much gambling effects the human condition.

Humans remember negative events (do to the amygdala's strong effect on long term memory) substantially clearer than positive ones.

You will remember all the times you get mimic first time much clearer than all the times you go it on the second, third, and fourth chest, cause those ones are boring, nothing happened of note, so your brain drops em.

But then you just remember getting the mimic first a bunch, and you don't remember getting loud thuds, but you *did* do like 20 runs.

So your brain automatically fills the knowledge gap in and goes "yeah we musta just got the mimic on the first chest like 13 times, it must've happened that way"

Thats how gambling machines get you. They use dark patterns to make your losses and wins memorable, but all the 'meh' results (which make up the majority of your rolls) fade away instantly.

That's why I sell the orbs. 100% 3m and I don't need that dopamine hit.

Realizing you instantly lose 3m when you hit a mimic changes your view. It's not a free orb.

It's different if you do a ***load instead of a couple.

Perfect summary in layman's terms. The orbs are worth more than 3m a piece by arithmetic mean, but there's so much variance between the chance of mimic, chance of loud thud, chance of body, and chance a buyer is present at the high end of the pay scale, that there's a solid argument in favor of selling at 3m.

Besides the monthly Mars I did all Venus this month across all accounts. I find it much more fun to open 2-4 chest and pop the gold instead of pressing my luck for Loud Thud only.

Selling them would have netted me more gil (I'd guess double) but the chance at a rare item is too fun to pass up.

For shiggles I did a Venus orb on my mule. Got a loud thud on the first drop and exited immediately.

Got a Queller Rod and a Vanir Gun. What the ***?

Was to Quell your urge of spending 10 vouchers instead of 6 ;)

Ruaun and Reisen weapons are loud thud drops. (reisen helm drops of all flavors, too)

I got an Emissary from a loud thud venus orb. Was so pissed.

This month i took a screenshot every time i did a trove run on my main and mules to share with my ls at the end of the campaign. Theres 3 columns starting from the top left down to the top of the next column down they are in order of when i did them, i used grey bars to separate the runs from each other. I used the same order every time and always exited on the first thud/loud thud that i got. I also only used the Waughroon Shrine BC. I only got 3 mimics out of 22 runs this month an every run i only used mars orb. I did these on different days through the month not at the same general time. Every screenshots starts and ends to include every chest in the run. I accidentally covered one of the blue boxed's initial chest but its still visible, just partially covered.

The blue borders are items of note and red borders are mimics.
To save people time of reading through it all the 2 blue boxes are Annointed Kalasirus and Dragon breastplate from loud thuds.

I thought this would be interesting raw data to gather for anyone curious about aman drop rates and mimic rates.

In the past ive gotten the 5mil(twice) and the Orpheus's sash from regular thuds and right before the campaign i got Promathia body from a loud thud.

Got 4 loud thuds, only 1 piece of gear (Kali), rest was trash NPCables :(

Man. You kept going with 2 louds all the way to 4.

How do you walk with balls that big.

You probably had whatever useful drops were coming to you. Assuming it was 2-4 different runs

Got an Emissary after update from a loud thud... honestly, it's past time for them to remove Escha T2 weapons from the loud thud pool.